Flying Without Legs: What a WWII Pilot and a Desktop Appraisal Have in Common

How a fighter ace, a courtroom sandwich, and a baseball statistician reveal the surprising truth about how we judge value—and why less can sometimes mean more.

The Pilot Who Couldn’t Feel the Plane

In 1931, Douglas Bader—a young Royal Air Force pilot—attempted a low-altitude roll in his Bristol Bulldog over the English countryside. His wingtip clipped the ground. The plane shattered. He survived, but barely.

Doctors amputated both of his legs.

Everyone assumed his flying career was over.

But Bader had other plans.

He taught himself to walk again using tin prosthetics. Then he taught himself to fly again. And when World War II broke out, Bader rejoined the RAF and became one of Britain’s most celebrated fighter aces, credited with 22 aerial victories.

How?

Because he couldn’t fly by feel, he flew by instruments. And that made him safer—and in many cases, better.

The Illusion of Seeing

We trust what we see. It feels real. Tangible.

That’s why, in real estate, site visits are still treated as sacred. Walk the house. Smell the air. Get a feel for the neighborhood.

But feeling isn’t fact. And presence isn’t precision.

Judgment—Interrupted by a Sandwich

In 2011, researchers Shai Danziger, Jonathan Levav, and Liora Avnaim-Pesso analyzed over 1,100 parole decisions made by Israeli judges over 50 days. They found that the likelihood of a favorable ruling was about 65% at the start of each session but dropped to nearly zero just before breaks. After a break? Back up to 65%.

Same judges. Same laws. Same cases.

The only variable? Time since their last meal.

Now consider an appraiser visiting multiple properties in a row—hot weather, traffic, deadlines. Is their final call shaped by the data, or by the day?

Moneyball and the Myth of Seeing with Your Eyes

Before data transformed baseball, scouts believed they could spot greatness by watching a swing or a stance.

Then came Billy Beane.

He built a winning team for the Oakland A’s not by watching players—but by analyzing stats. Players who didn’t “look right” were often better. The data didn’t lie.

In real estate, appraisers rely on comparable sales to inform value—but here’s the thing: they’ve never stepped foot in those comps. They’ve never walked through the living room or seen the backyard.

They’re relying on MLS photos and listing data, tax records, and written descriptions.

Here’s the part no one really talks about:

Even in a full traditional appraisal, most of the process is already desktop.

The site visit? It’s a tiny sliver of the overall analysis—and often the part most prone to subjective interpretation.

Superforecasters: Outsiders Who Outperformed the CIA

In 2011, the U.S. Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity (IARPA), part of the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, initiated a forecasting tournament to improve geopolitical predictions.

The Good Judgment Project, led by researchers from UPenn and UC Berkeley, assembled teams of ordinary civilians—teachers, students, retirees. They were trained to think probabilistically, update their assumptions, and strip emotion from analysis.

They made predictions like:

• Will North Korea conduct another nuclear test this year?

• Will the U.K. vote to leave the European Union?

• Will there be a significant outbreak of a novel virus in the next six months?

  
  

They didn't have security clearance. They weren't spies.

And yet, they outperformed U.S. intelligence analysts with classified data by more than 30%.

When COVID-19 emerged in 2020, Superforecasters predicted that global cases would hit 200,000 by March 20. The number was hit on March 19.

They were better not because they "knew" more—but because they were trained to tune out noise.

In the world of appraisal, that's the lesson: sometimes, outsiders with clean inputs and careful logic see the world more clearly than insiders with all the access.

Memory and the Mirage of Certainty

In 1974, psychologists Elizabeth Loftus and John Palmer conducted a study to examine how memory could be influenced by language.

Participants watched footage of a car accident. Then they were asked, “How fast were the cars going when they hit each other?” Others heard the word smashed instead.

That single verb made all the difference.

Those who heard "smashed" gave much higher speed estimates. A week later, they were also more likely to (falsely) remember seeing broken glass.

There was no broken glass.

The brain fills in gaps. It rewrites what it thinks it saw. And it does it with confidence.

Appraisers, too, are human. One might be influenced by the smell of mildew. Another by lavender and an open window. One sees clutter. Another sees charm.

Same house. Different reports.

Douglas Bader Knew

He had no choice but to trust the instruments. To fly by logic, not instinct. To focus on data—not feel.

And that made him better.

In real estate, the future of valuation is moving the same way: toward data clarity, away from sensory noise. Not because it’s cheaper or faster—but because it’s cleaner.

Presence feels powerful. But precision is power.

The View from 30,000 Feet

Douglas Bader couldn’t feel the plane beneath him.

But he could read the instruments.

And that made all the difference.

We tell ourselves that being there—walking the halls, seeing the condition firsthand—is what makes a valuation real. It feels responsible. It feels thorough.

But feelings aren’t facts. And the closer we get, the more likely we are to see what we expect—not what’s objectively true.

Maybe the future of valuation doesn’t need more presence.

Maybe it needs less noise.

Because in the end, Bader didn’t fly despite having no legs.

He flew better because he had no choice but to trust the data.